Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.161585 2.290171 2.425783 2.580041 2.751360 2.936629 3.153271
2025-04-27 2.003450 2.184671 2.385457 2.626567 2.911193 3.240362 3.655734
2025-05-04 1.902561 2.116333 2.361535 2.667840 3.046559 3.508507 4.129828
2025-05-11 1.796759 2.027362 2.298612 2.647587 3.094694 3.663707 4.470781
2025-05-18 1.712725 1.955286 2.246614 2.630873 3.138604 3.809713 4.809653
2025-05-25 1.638650 1.888986 2.194948 2.607168 3.166659 3.931635 5.124575
2025-06-01 1.574154 1.829900 2.147248 2.582884 3.188573 4.042878 5.434035
2025-06-08 1.527822 1.790550 2.121431 2.584147 3.243322 4.203403 5.840650
2025-06-15 1.496096 1.767684 2.114863 2.609647 3.332529 4.421976 6.376734
2025-06-22 1.443005 1.714324 2.064681 2.570519 3.322659 4.484065 6.647187
2025-06-29 1.392767 1.662510 2.013906 2.527056 3.302074 4.525331 6.883800
2025-07-06 1.342443 1.608633 1.957895 2.472727 3.260435 4.526899 7.042571
2025-07-13 1.321875 1.594289 1.956072 2.497935 3.345766 4.753858 7.705985
2025-07-20 1.308305 1.588675 1.965799 2.540334 3.461360 5.047155 8.586250
2025-07-27 1.294511 1.581973 1.973318 2.579287 3.573874 5.348958 9.577321
2025-08-03 1.263760 1.550663 1.944259 2.560134 3.586682 5.463291 10.140528
2025-08-10 1.235912 1.522415 1.918386 2.544328 3.603587 5.587005 10.767181
2025-08-17 1.207760 1.492819 1.889370 2.521904 3.606907 5.683250 11.349192
2025-08-24 1.180998 1.464366 1.860960 2.498924 3.607329 5.773219 11.945543
2025-08-31 1.162408 1.446908 1.848058 2.500120 3.651263 5.961112 12.930367
2025-09-07 1.150994 1.439264 1.849331 2.524250 3.738998 6.257649 14.439462
2025-09-14 1.123950 1.408398 1.814671 2.487221 3.708702 6.281098 14.948644
2025-09-21 1.097009 1.377058 1.778414 2.446066 3.667987 6.275903 15.349693